I have just watched George Friedman on Mauldin Economics discussing, of course, the situation in Ukraine, what it means for the rest of the world, etc. The video can be found below, and I would encourage you to watch it in its entirety, and maybe yet again if you need to in future. One of the blessings of having stuff recorded on video is that you can call them up again and again if you are a suprememly slow student like me. Books are much better, of course, but precious few read these days, so videos are the modern laissez-faire person’s equivalent.
I commented recently on how I found it surprising that people who do geopolitical forecasting should be expected to apologize for being wrong in not predicting that Putin would actually invade. The macro view had been right all along, why worry about tactical variations when they do not change the price of fish? Even if they had called it rightly, as some did, would the outcome have been different? Encouraging the Ukrainians towards self-determination and then failing to arm them sufficiently falls well within the Western playbook. What the West wants is no hegemon centering around Russia, Germany, France or whichever nation happens to rise at any given time, and being able to marshal huge resources such that they are able to present an existential threat to the United States and the United Kingdom. That, by the way, was the principal reason for BREXIT. A Scottish exit from the UK, however, would be madness. I first encountered this concept with JFC Fuller’s work “The Second World War: A strategical and tactical history” several years ago, and the concept has manifested itself time and time again. I would also recommend that you view the short clip below, done seven years or so earlier, where George Friedman explains what’s at stake where Ukraine, the Crimea, etc, are concerned. One must also remember why the British were involved in the Crimean War which brought our attention to the Charge of the Light Brigade and nurses such as Florence Nightingale.
The trajectories which the world is on right now, and has been on since the beginning, are certainly tragic. That means the trajectory your business and your own personal life are on right now are also tragic. What will you do to make your trajectory less tragic and more triumphant?
See also “What’s Your Trajectory?“